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flockwoodUSA TODAY has a story that states the obvious. States where organized religion is weak are far more likely to back gay marriage than states where organized religion is strong.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s a good story and it’s written by a great religion reporter, and it uses new data, but it contains absolutely no surprises — at least for those of us who have been studying exit polls and voter surveys on this topic for the past decade.
In California, as I’ve noted before, roughly two-thirds of Protestants and roughly two-thirds of Catholics voted for Proposition 8, the measure outlawing gay marriage. Voters who claimed no religious affiliation, on the other hand, opposed Proposition 8, 90 percent to 10 percent, exit polls showed.
In addition, support for Proposition 8 among church-going Christians was off the charts. Those attending church weekly or more often voted for traditional marriage, 84 percent to 16 percent.
That’s the California election in a nutshell:
Seculars: 10 to 1 for gay marriage.
Churchgoing Christians: 5 to 1 against gay marriage.
So what does this mean for the future?
If the nation becomes more secular [and that seems unstoppable, barring an act or move of God], gay marriage will expand from New England into other parts of the country.
In addition, Californians 18-29 were lopsidedly in favor of gay marriage. If they continue to support gay marriage as they age — and if their children and grandchildren share their views on gay marriage — then time and mortality tables will eventually settle this debate.
Also, the exit polls showed a correlation between educational attainment and support for gay marriage. If the number of college graduates rises [despite the recession] that also suggests support for gay marriage will expand.
I’m not saying which side should win or lose the debate over gay marriage. But gay marriage advocates have to be heartened by several of the findings in these exit polls and religious surveys.
March 26th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
The article begins: “Same-sex marriage proposals are sweeping into New England state legislatures this spring . . .”
Is it me, or is there some humor in there somewhere?
March 28th, 2009 at 4:00 am
After reading this I began to wonder if the correlation was so much with organized religion per se, as opposed to what KIND of organized religion. After all, several denominations are downright friendly to gays. Could it be that areas that support gay rights are also places where these more liberal denominations are proportionally well represented?
Looking at the Metropolitan Community Church website, and tallying the number of congregations by state, I was surprised to find that this was not the case. Would you believe that there are more local MCC groups in North Carolina than New York, and more in South Carolina than Massachusetts? California is tied for the greatest number of congregations– no surprise there– but Florida has an equal number and Texas ain’t far behind. Now there are very few MCC congregations so one should be cautious about drawing conclusions, but this was not the trend I expected. I wonder if you would see the same thing with UCC and UU. (Are there any other religious groups with the same level of openness towards homosexuality?)
Support for gay marriage will increase in this country but I don’t see that being a direct result of the weakening of organized religion. The younger people of today seem much more tolerant and accepting of other lifestyles. I was brought up to fear and despise homosexuals. The young people know better. They have friends who are openly gay, and they can see the truth for themselves. And I have to wonder if it’s the hateful anti-gay messages in so many churches that causes the new generation turn away from organized religion.
March 28th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I tend to agree with your analysis, Jose. When I was in high school 30 plus years ago, absolutely no one at my small rural school would ever have admitted to being gay or lesbian, and if anyone had, they’d have been ostracized by the majority. My son went to high school in Lexington, and as Jose says, grew up in an environment in which being openly gay is acceptable. His generation has made tremendous strides in understanding that gays and lesbians are people too. I suspect that when the current generation of gaybashers passes on, the next will be even more tolerant.
As it is, my own Episcopal Church is relatively open to gays and lesbians, despite the flap caused by our ordination of a gay bishop, and Jose’s United Methodists are moving in that direction in fits and starts, as are the Presbyterians, Lutherans, and most other mainline denominations. As always, these denominations will lead the way, and after a couple of more generations, I expect the others will follow.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:43 pm
“As always, these denominations will lead the way, and after a couple of more generations, I expect the others will follow.”
I guess my question would be, to where are these denominations leading…?
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Enlightenment, David, enlightenment.