The Iowa pollsters are witch doctors, weather forecasters and crystal ballgazers who blend common sense, clairvoyance, conventional wisdom and voodoo. Beware of what they’re telling you — especially in the Democratic caucuses.

They’re danged good at what they do. But they’ve got a tough task — especially in Iowa in 2008. Here’s why.

• Polls are snapshots in time. If you’ve ever been to the horse races, you know that a horse can be ahead within shouting distance of the finish line and still lose. A candidate who truly was leading on December 31st may be losing steam while another candidate surges. A series of polls, taken over a period of days or weeks, can capture changes in momentum. A single poll, taken in isolation, doesn’t do it.

• It’s a close, close race. If you believe this week’s polls, Mitt Romney is going to win the Republican presidential caucus. So is Mike Huckabee. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama is on top. So is John Edwards. And Hillary Clinton. So clearly, voters are saying different things to different pollsters. Right? Not necessarily. Here’s where the voodoo comes in:

• Iowa pollsters don’t simply make 1,000 calls at random, tabulate the results and then call it a day. They try to make sure the people they are calling are “representative” of the people who are actually going to turn up. They know from past experience that women are more likely to attend than men, that old people are more likely to vote than young people, that people who have participated in past caucuses are more likely to show up than novices. If this year’s caucus mirrors previous caucuses demographically — i.e. if the same number of young people and Independents and women show up as in past years, then the pollsters look like geniuses. However, if something unexpected or unforseen happens, then the polls could be wildly, comically, “Dewey Beats Truman” off the mark. And this may be an Iowa caucus for the ages. Here’s why:

• According to the Des Moines Register poll, which appears in today’s edition, young people in the Hawkeye State really love Barack Obama. So do independents. The numbers are staggering. Among likely Iowa caucus-goers ages 18-34, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 56 percent to 11 percent. That’s not a typo. Fifty-six percent to 11 percent. (The rest are undecided or scattered among other candidates…) Independents also are wild about the guy from Illinois. Thirty-nine percent of independents support Obama. Only 15 percent back Clinton. Now if young people and independents stay home on caucus night, Hillary Clinton may win. It’s the only way she can win. If they show up, the night belongs to Obama . So what percentage of young people and independents will show up? That’s anybody’s guess. The key word: guess.

• Yes, these pollsters are soothsayers and tea-leaf readers. But they’re also geniuses. They’re very, very good at what they do. And they’re making educated guesses about what will happen on Jan. 3rd. But these are guesstimates. And once in a while they guess wildy wrong:

• Back in 1988, former Baptist preacher Pat Robertson finished at 13 percent in the final Des Moines Register poll. But he vowed that his “invisible army” of born-again Christian caucus-goers would show up at the polls and they did. On caucus day, Robertson claimed 26 percent of the vote, beating a wealthy well-connected New England politician named George Bush… Do I see a repeat in 2008? No. Robertson had deep pockets and an extraordinary organization in Iowa. Huckabee doesn’t. But it’s hard to predict how religion will impact voter turnout on the Republican side. It could give Huckabee a boost. It could also help Gov. Romney. Latter-day Saints, proud of Romney’s success and unhappy with Huckabee’s jabs at their faith could also turn out in force.

• One final complicating factor. Iowa has a caucus, not a primary. This isn’t a five-minute trip to a polling booth. It’s an evening long event. So only the most motivated, fired-up or civic-minded Iowans will participate. When I was in Iowa, I talked to evangelical Christians who spoke enthusiastically about “Brother Huckabee” — but who admitted they probably wouldn’t bother to show up for the caucuses. It’s a commitment and only the diehards are likely to go. This is where organization kicks in. This is where critical mass is so important. If you’re a college student who likes Obama and you’ve got half-a-dozen friends who are going to the caucus to vote for Obama, then the trip is no longer a chore. It’s a social occasion. Instead of being an obligation, it’s an event. Instead of being intimidating, it’s exciting. I talked to some Huckabee supporters in Iowa who loved the candidate, but said they probably wouldn’t attend because they had child-care issues. In a tight caucus, the difference between winning and losing could be the difference between providing free babysitting, free transportation, free dinner. Those things could tip the balance. We’ll know which way it tipped on Thursday night.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 1st, 2008 at 10:47 am and is filed under Religion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.